3 Central Bank Decisions Set to Define the Week.
Summary
The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with a hold widely expected; the language of Powell's press conference will carry more weight than the decision itself
The Bank of England and ECB both announce on Thursday 30 April, alongside the US Q1 GDP advance estimate, making it the single most consequential day of the week for currency markets
UK CPI rose to 3.3% in March, up from 3.0% in February, as the Iran conflict fed through to motor fuel prices for the first time
UK labour market data released last week showed unemployment falling and wage growth holding firm, though vacancies fell to their lowest level since early 2021
Currency markets face their most concentrated stretch of central bank activity since late 2025, with the Fed, Bank of England and ECB all announcing within 48 hours of one another. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, Brent crude has risen approximately 48% from its pre-war level and was trading above $107 at the time of writing, and the diplomatic picture darkened further last week after a brief reopening of the strait was reversed within days following a fresh confrontation between US and Iranian naval forces.
The Federal Reserve's Wednesday decision is a near-certain hold, but this is not a projections meeting, meaning every word in the statement carries interpretive weight. Powell must describe an economy where growth has slowed sharply into Q1, headline inflation has risen on energy, and the case for near-term easing has weakened considerably since the conflict began. Markets will look to his press conference for any signal on whether the Committee treats the energy-driven overshoot as temporary or as grounds for holding rates higher for longer.
Sterling enters the week near two-week lows against the dollar, having slipped as stalled US-Iran talks and renewed Hormuz tensions weighed on sentiment through the second half of last week. The domestic picture was more encouraging. March CPI came in above forecasts, driven almost entirely by motor fuel, while core inflation edged lower, suggesting the energy shock has not yet spread into broader price pressures. Labour market figures also beat expectations, with unemployment falling and wage growth holding firm. A hold on Thursday is near-certain, but the composition of the MPC vote and the Monetary Policy Report will shape the sterling outlook for weeks to come, with markets currently pricing two Bank Rate increases in 2026.
The ECB decision carries the most uncertainty of the three. Rates were held in March, but Bundesbank President Nagel told CNBC last week that policymakers were sitting between their baseline and adverse scenarios on energy. Eurozone headline inflation rose to 2.5% in March while core held near target, making an immediate hike difficult to justify. A hold with carefully worded optionality is the most likely outcome, though a surprise move would drive a sharp reaction in the euro against both sterling and the dollar. The US Q1 GDP advance estimate, also due Thursday, adds a further layer of event risk to an already crowded day.
Events to Watch This Week:
Wednesday 29 April: FOMC rate decision and press conference
Thursday 30 April: Bank of England rate decision and Monetary Policy Report; ECB rate decision and press conference; US Q1 2026 GDP Advance Estimate
Three central bank decisions and a US GDP print all land before the week is out, creating meaningful event risk across sterling, the euro and the dollar. Speak to the Orbis dealing team now to ensure your upcoming transfers are protected.
London Office: +44 (0) 203 918 5620 | Dubai Office: +971 54 287 0072
