Summary:
Seven OPEC+ countries agreed on Sunday to keep December production targets unchanged.
The UK Budget was published last week, with the Bank of England’s next decision due on Thursday.
The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50%, while preliminary figures showed euro area growth slowing in the third quarter.
The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged before US data showed annual PCE inflation at 3.6% in September.
Energy costs remain a central concern for policymakers as November begins. On Thursday, the ECB warned that rising energy prices threatened both higher inflation and weaker growth, while underlying inflation had remained broadly stable so far. Over the weekend, seven OPEC+ countries agreed to maintain their existing production targets for December. That decision concerns planned output rather than a guarantee of actual supply, an important distinction when assessing the energy backdrop.
For sterling, attention turns from the Budget to Thursday’s Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report. The Treasury’s Budget document, published on 28 October, showed a forecast £15 billion buffer against the government’s stability rule in 2029–30. It attributed the reduction in that headroom since spring to higher debt interest costs. Bank Rate remains at 3.75%, following September’s 6–3 vote to hold, when three members favoured an increase. Thursday’s announcement will establish the next policy decision alongside the Bank’s updated economic assessment.
The euro’s policy backdrop combines continued growth with energy-related risks. The ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October and reiterated that it was not committing to a particular rate path. Eurostat’s preliminary estimate subsequently showed seasonally adjusted GDP rising 0.4% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, after 0.6% growth in the second. These estimates remain subject to revision. Separately, the ECB announced that President Christine Lagarde will step down on 7 February 2027. Wednesday’s October inflation estimate provides the next scheduled update on euro area consumer prices.
For the dollar, last week brought an unchanged policy rate followed by fresh growth and inflation figures. The Fed voted 10–2 on 28 October to retain its 3.75%–4.00% target range, with both dissenters preferring a quarter-point increase. Thursday’s advance estimate put third-quarter US real GDP growth at a seasonally adjusted annualised 3.4%, compared with 2.2% in the second quarter. Separately, September’s PCE price index increased 0.5% month on month and 3.6% year on year. Friday’s October employment report will add new labour market evidence after the policy decision.
Events to Watch This Week:
Tuesday 3 November: US federal elections; September US job openings.
Wednesday 4 November: October euro area flash inflation; September US international trade figures.
Thursday 5 November: Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report.
Friday 6 November: October US employment report.
For businesses with international payments, this calendar brings policy announcements, economic releases and a US election into the same week. Reviewing payment dates and currency amounts can help frame discussions about exposure without assuming a particular market direction. Contact the Orbis dealing team to discuss your upcoming requirements.
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